October 1, 2022

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96L Red Alert 70% Anytime NHC Decides to Designate It BUT Waiting on Recon to See What’s Under the Hood. Typical 2022 Fighting Off Shear Stubborn System.

2 min read

 

If there was a Cone….

…it would look a lot like this.

Well wider at the end as we aren’t sure yet!

Is this Fiona?

I think so.

Definitely has a look….

… trying to be a TD if you ask me.

Models…………….

NOTE 70% anytime basically…

Gotta tell you this is the first song that came to mind when watching Invest 96L now a red highlighted circle with 70% chances “any day” of becomming a designated system. Recon should go in by tomorrow and we should know what 96L has under the hood.

Great song but really less about DNA and more about where this storm is going to go? Does it want to follow tracks more consistent with CLIMO  does it strike out on it’s own like an unprepared hiker on the Appalachian Trail?  We all discuss this concept but Dabuh coined it “fork in the road” though think Robert Frost might want to claim that title, but not in the mood to squabble this morning. Actually dancing a bit as I type (honest) so let’s talk models the way we will talk turkey in a month or so.. 

This is the GFS… 

…sees your typical OBX storm.

Threatens SC but heads for NC… 

Euro lets it escape.

Usuaully GFS sees stronger fronts.

2022 be all cray cray in the tropics…….

The ICON takes Fiona into the Caribbean.

Who do you believe?

If there was a Dabuh model…..

… it’d be laughing at the ICON.

And to be honest I agree with him at least in the short term.

Not ready to say what I think on long term.

But short term is kind of set in stone.

Note the divergence of of wind flow… 

96L is a bit too far North for me to believe…

…it’ll be a Caribbean monster.

More likely Westbound.

Intensifies enough to feel the pull to the right.

But shear keeps it from exploding.

Water Vapor shows the future track well.

It’s not an easy ride….

…but it’s gotten this far.

Upper Level Low near Bahamas/Florida.

WNW track probable.

But would like some recon in there.

Intensity forecasts a crap shoot until there’s a defined center.

Where will the NHC place the center.

Lord I’d love to read some good discussion on this… 

.. wanna be TD.

Fighting to hang on… 2022 written all over it!

strong signature….

Stay tuned…

…time will tell.

I’ll update later …

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter usually weather and Instagram whatever..

 Song up at the top… remember??

noreply@blogger.com (BobbiStorm)

2022-09-14 12:32:00

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