The tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is very close to becoming a tropical depression and that will likely happen this weekend.
The system is expected to move west and has a high probability of impacting Central America, including Nicaragua and Honduras next week.
Here are the various model tracks:
Here are the various members of the GFS Ensemble:
Notice that some of them carry the storm over Cuba and even toward Southeast Florida. The deterministic GFS even subscribes to this theory.
The system has a good chance of becoming a hurricane, although. that is not a certainty. Here are the various intensity models:
When it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Eta.
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Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site’s official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site’s severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian