By the late week, the upper-level trough over the central and eastern states will be joined on the stage by an intensifying upper-level ridge of high pressure over eastern Canada/NW Atlantic. This ridge will indeed play a critical role in the ultimate path of Lee as it will likely inhibit any chance for Lee to escape harmlessly out to the open waters of the North Atlantic. Instead, Lee may actually take a bit of a turn back to the northwest as it climbs to higher and higher latitudes and this will increase chances for impacts on eastern New England by the late week and weekend with heavy rains and strong winds on the table.
It is important to note that an impact on eastern new England by Lee is quite likely whether or not there is a direct hit as its associated wind field is likely to spread out compared to current levels. All residents along the eastern New England coastline needs to closely monitor Lee’s movement in coming days along with those in Nova Scotia (Canada) where a direct hit is possible. Given the movement of Lee over cooler waters of the western Atlantic later in the week, it is likely to weaken from current “major” hurricane levels; however, impact in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada can certainly still be significant. As far as direct hurricane hits in New England are concerned, there has actually been a drought in recent decades. According to Meteorologist Joe Bastardi, New England was directly hit by a hurricane on average once every 6.7 years in the extended period from 1938-1991. There have be no direct hits of hurricanes in New England since 1991.
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