February 21, 2024

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8:00 AM (Sunday) | ***Rain-to-snow scenario in much of the Mid-Atlantic from later Monday night into Tuesday…accumulations across PA, central/northern NJ, NYC…nuisance only event DC-to-southern NJ*** — Arcfield Weather

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Details

A couple of very mild days took place in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and Saturday with temperatures peaking at 60+ degrees in, for example, like Washington, D.C. despite mostly cloudy skies. A cold front pushed through late Saturday and though it will turn cooler behind it on Sunday, temperatures will remain at relatively mild levels going into the new work week.

On Monday, low pressure will push northeastward out of the Tennessee Valley to around West Virginia and then transfer to a coastal low near the Delmarva Peninsula that intensifies before heading out-to-sea in and east-to-northeast fashion. With little in the way of cold air established upon the arrival of the storm’s large moisture field, rain is likely to break out in the I-95 corridor late Monday, but colder air will be posed just to the north and west. As the storm near the coast and intensifies on Monday night, colder air to the north and west will get wrapped into the system and the rain is likely to change to snow in much of PA, central/northern NJ and NYC…much less of a threat for a changeover to snow across DC and southern NJ. The “bullseye” region in terms of snowfall for this upcoming storm where 6-12 inches can accumulate appears to be from central and northeastern PA to interior New York State to southern New England (e.g., State College, Poconos, Poughkeepsie, Pittsfield, Boston).

Paul Dorian

2024-02-11 12:56:45

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