4:15 PM | ****Low pressure to intensify on Monday off the Mid-Atlantic coastline reaching near Long Island by mid-day Tuesday…snow on Tuesday can swing all the way down into SE PA and southern NJ**** — Arcfield Weather

Precipitation has broken out today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and will continue into Monday mainly in the form of rain in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and mainly snow in the usual favored interior higher elevation locations. The surface low will push northeastward on Monday just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and ending up near Long Island by mid-day on Tuesday. Heavy snow is likely to break out by Monday night across much of New York State and interior New England as this system intensifies off the coast.  Colder air will wrap into the system and any rain or mixture that is falling early Monday night in the I-95 corridor region from Philly-to-NYC can very well change to snow by early Tuesday. 

Accumulating snow is likely in the NYC metro region and there can be accumulations all the way south into southeastern PA and central New Jersey by mid-day by as an inverted trough extending back from the ocean low pressure center will enhance precipitation amounts back into this zone. There is even an outside chance that snow swings back around from northeast-to-southwest all the way down to the northern part of Maryland on Tuesday. Significant accumulating snow of a foot or more is likely from this storm system across NE PA and interior NW NJ. The real “bullseye” region in terms of snowfall from this storm may end up being the Lower Hudson Valley of NY State and central/western sections of Connecticut and Massachusetts.  Winds will become an important factor as well by later Monday night and on Tuesday with 50 mph wind gusts possible on Tuesday throughout the Mid-Atlantic region on the back side of this powerful storm.

Stay tuned…still plenty of details that have to be ironed out, but as we learned thirty years ago, there is precedent for big-time late winter snowstorms. 

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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