June 22, 2024

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*2024 Tropical Season and Summertime Outlook by Arcfield Weather* — Arcfield Weather

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 A look at analog years and their signals for the upcoming summer across the US

Based largely upon the expectation of a continuation of La Nina this summer and fall, there are five analog years that I have selected which featured similar sea surface temperature anomalies and trends.  When averaged together, these five analog years featured slightly above-normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.  The seven analog years listed here include the number of named storms, number of minimal hurricanes, and the number of “major” hurricanes in each given year: 1975 (9/6/3), 1970 (14/7/2), 2011 (19/7/4), 2010 (19/12/5), and 1999 (12/8/5).

In the Mid-Atlantic region and much of the eastern US, these five analog years generally featured warmer-than-normal temperatures in the June through September time frame. In terms of specific temperature anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, I expect the summer season to average somewhere in the +1.0 to +3.0 range. In terms of precipitation, much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US may be in store for wetter-than-normal weather this summer which follows a wetter-than-normal winter and spring in most areas. Elsewhere, the summer weather highlights may include cooler-than-normal weather across much of the western US, drier-than-normal conditions across Texas, Florida, and the Tennessee Valley.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian

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Video discussion:

Paul Dorian

2024-04-17 17:15:00

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