We are inching closer to the realm of the medium range global models, so that will be a big help. Yesterday I left out the ProSolo folks, so I wanted to touch on that today.
First we’ll look at the ensembles, since we are just a little too far out to rely on the deterministic models right now. Tropical Storm Harold will be making landfall today over Texas, and that will be bringing some rainfall to Lincoln next Saturday and Sunday. The rain and moisture will wrap around an area of high pressure over OK/TX, and will bring some much needed rain to the central plains.
The next two images are the ensemble temperatures for Lincoln through Tuesday, September 5th. It’s hot but still not double digits. The di pin temperatures is due to TS Harold’s rainfall.
The GFS ensembles are hotter.
Compare the Euro ensemble to this Euro deterministic run. Close.
As for precipitation, these images depict the “spread” in all of the ensemble members. The Euro has 50 ensemble members plus one control member. Notice the small stair steps as we get to Sunday the 3rd.
The GFS ensemble shows the same stair step pattern. So for now, it appears that there may be a slight daily chance for precipitation beginning around the 1st and continuing through at least the 7th.
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