Signals from the analog years and the summertime outlook
Based largely upon the expectation of a continuation of La Nina this summer and fall, there are seven analog years that I have selected which featured similar sea surface temperature anomalies and trends. When averaged together, these seven analog years featured slightly above-normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. The seven analog years listed here include the number of named storms, number of minimal hurricanes, and the number of “major” hurricanes in each given year: 1975 (9/6/3), 1970 (14/7/2), 2011 (19/7/4), 2010 (19/12/5), 2013 (14/2/0), 2020 (30/14/7) and 2021 (21/7/4).
In the Mid-Atlantic region, these seven analog years generally featured warmer-than-normal temperatures in the June through August time frame. Specifically, in terms of temperature anomalies, I expect the summer season to average somewhere in the +1.0 to 2.0 range in the Mid-Atlantic region. Elsewhere, there is reason to believe that the Northern and Central Plains could experience much warmer-than-normal conditions this summer based upon comparisons with these selected analog years and much drier-than-normal as well. Much of the eastern third of the nation may be in store for wetter-than-normal weather this summer which will follow a wetter-than-normal spring in most areas.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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