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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good day everyone!
Being I’m pressed for time, I will not be providing a severe weather forecast, as I wanted to publish my updated preliminary 2022 hurricane season forecast. Based on quick analysis however of severe weather indices and parameters, tornado activity is forecast to be the most favorable within both slight risk areas as outlined by SPC. Please refer to the SPC DAY 1 outlook by clicking the map. The pre-season forecast however I did not have to type, but just change some information.
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
Based on analysis of the most CURRENT forecast information from various global and climate models, it appears at the moment, the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to be another “above average” season. As always, this forecast is subject to change as forecast models update between now and June 01 on a monthly basis. However, as it stands with the current available information, it looks like another above average season. I will reiterate once again, when I post my pre-season, and final seasonal forecasts, the totals I come up with are based on BONA FIDE storms, not some of the crap we saw named last season, and seasons previous. I’m speaking of storms that meet the NWS/NHC criteria. First, the system has to start out as a Tropical Disturbance, and as it strengthens, it becomes a depression, storm, and then hurricane:
A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection — generally 100 to 300 nmi in diameter — originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.
Please note some of the “key” features: apparently organized convection, nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours. Last season, and in some prior seasons, we saw naked swirls being called depressions, and all of a sudden, if a thunderstorm popped up, or an area of deep convection fired up, mainly on the edge of the center, it got named. This does not meet the criteria of apparently organized deep convection, maintaining for 24 hours. They also named systems that had a frontal system still attached, or decaying front through the center of the system. So, if you counted only the Bona Fide systems, we only wound up with the 16 – 19 storms I predicted, prior to my supplementary update. Keep this in mind if you are following this site and the active storms…look for the criteria.
The following is my PRE-SEASON (UPDATE 3) outlook forecast for the upcoming 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. These totals are almost surely to change, as climate modeling continues to update between now and June 01, 2022:
STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17–20
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7–10
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 6
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
Forecast parameters used in this synopsis include the following:
1.) CLIMATE MODEL ENSO PLUME FORECASTS
2.) SST ANOMALY FORECAST
3.) IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) FORECAST
4.) WIND SHEAR FORECAST
5.) ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS
6.) AVERAGING OF CHOSEN ANALOG YEARS BASED ON CPC ONI HISTORY
The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter
The following is the new supplemental list of storm names for the 2022 Hurricane Season, should we go through the entire first list of names. You’ll note, the list is not of the Greek alphabet. The link following the supplemental list will explain why the WMO discontinued the Greek alphabet.
2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will
Based on analysis of updated forecast ENSO plumes from global and climate modeling, and updated ONI forecast temperatures and trends (anomalies have cooled slightly), the majority of models seem to indicate continued weak La Nina conditions, to NEUTRAL COLD biased. As a rule of thumb, the cooler NINO 3.4 becomes, the more favorable conditions over the Atlantic become for storm development.
CLIMATE MODEL NINO PLUMES FORECAST GRAPHS:
BOM (AUSTRALIA BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY)
IRI / CPC
The following SST anomalies forecast is from the CFSv2 climate model and NMME model, and currently indicates the La Nina pattern weakens somewhat from the current anomalies, however still showing a cold bias. You can compare these forecast images with the current state of La Nina:
CFSv2 SST ANOMALIES FORECAST
NMME JUNE / JULY /AUGUST SST ANOMALIES FORECAST
JULY / AUGUST / SEPTEMBER
NMME AUGUST / SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER
CURRENT SST ANOMALIES
You’ll note in the SST anomalies forecast maps, the anomaly pattern is somewhat similar to the pattern we saw in the 2021 hurricane season, with warmer SST anomalies north of the MDR. IF these anomalies come to fruition, we could see a development pattern similar to 2021.
I’m going to discuss two other important factors regarding development over the Atlantic ocean. The first involves the Gulf of Guinea. The second involves the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole).
The Gulf of Guinea is the northeastern most part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean from Cape Lopez in Gabon, north and west to Cape Palmas in Liberia.
I am going to turn away from mentioning what the climate models indicate about the Gulf of Guinea forecast temperature anomalies, as they have not panned out over the past 2 hurricane seasons. I will however state the role played by the Gulf of Guinea. When the Gulf of Guinea is warmer than average/normal (warm anomalies) or a warm neutral, the ITCZ has the tendency to remain further south, (Equatorward) during the season. This is what occurred in the 2021 hurricane season, as we saw many tropical waves exit below 10 degrees north latitude. In addition, we saw many SAL occurrences, even into August. The heaviest of the SAL outbreaks climatologically occur in the month of July. With the ITCZ further south, it doesn’t extend into the Sahel region of Africa, hence drier conditions and more dust. When the Gulf of Guinea experiences cooler anomalies (colder than normal), it allows for a shift northward in the ITCZ/Monsoon, due to the reverse pressure pattern, bringing greater rainfall to the Sahel region, which would aid in a reduction in the SAL.
GULF OF GUINEA
Another item in the forecast regarding Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies is the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). The updated forecast from the climate modeling tends to show the IOD going strongly negative, or what I refer to as “tanking”, by the beginning of the season. IF this comes to fruition, we “could” see an increase in easterly wave activity during the Cape Verde season, which could lead to an active “wave train”. During the 2019 season, there didn’t really seem to be a lot of wave activity coming off Africa. There were a couple “spurts”, however nothing that really caught my attention as far as a continuing wave train with “strong” waves over the African continent, and / or development of these waves. 2019 had a “positive” IOD phase. The opposite occurred however during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, with neutral to cool anomalies (neutral / negative IOD). During a positive IOD phase, you’ll notice the “Walker” circulation allowing for an increase in convection and rain near east Africa. The rising air causes lower pressure and precipitation at the ocean surface. You’ll see on the eastern side of the circulation, air sinks to the surface, causing higher pressure at the surface and drier conditions. Well, it just so happens, this exact flow happens on the western portion of the circulation. The air rises, and as it reaches the upper portion of the atmosphere, it cools, then begins to sink (higher pressure). As this air in the upper atmosphere sinks, it compresses and heats, drying out the air, hence the “lack” of convection for easterly waves. A negative IOD phase has the opposite effect. As the air “sinks” over the western Indian Ocean, it spreads out over the surface, and across eastern Africa. The pattern then continues with the air “rising” over central Africa, allowing for, or aiding in the formation of convection.
IOD SST ANOMALIES NEGATIVE / POSITIVE
IOD POSITIVE PHASE
IOD NEUTRAL PHASE
IOD NEGATIVE PHASE
CURRENT IOD FORECAST FROM BOM, UKMET, AND NASA GEOS
With the forecast of a neutral cold bias ENSO to weak La Nina, the CFSv2 is showing below normal wind shear over the Atlantic basin for the season, which is another enhancing factor for the hurricane season.
CFSv2 CURRENT SEASONAL u200 – u850 (WIND SHEAR) FORECAST
You’ll notice that shear anomalies are forecast to be below to well below normal over the MDR and north of it. However, the forecast for last season started the same way, with each update showing slightly less favorable conditions by the time the season started.
There will be one more update issued by the climate modeling regarding the ONI, and a final adjustment may have to be made, prior to the start of the season, June 01, 2022.
Based on analysis of forecast ONI values from the IRI (International Research Institute), which uses 26 different climate models, I came up with the following past hurricane seasons as analog years: 2000 (15-8-3), 2008 (16-8-5), and 2021 (21-7-4). I determined this from ONI values and / or value trends based on the average of ALL the climate models, comparing them to the CPC ONI chart, with the years that matched the forecast anomalies, and/or anomaly trends. The analog years chosen, were selected based on a warm AMO, which we have been in since 1995. From 1966 through 1994, the AMO was in its cold phase. The IRI provides an average of the Dynamical models, Statistical models, and an average of ALL 26 models output.
The ONI explained from the site, HDX:
Monthly Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de facto standard that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses to identify El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. It is the three month mean SST anomaly for the El Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W). Events are defined as five consecutive overlapping three month periods at or above the +0.5°C anomaly for warm (El Niño), events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4) and Strong (≥ 1.5) events. For an event to be categorized as weak, moderate or strong. It must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least three consecutive overlapping three month periods.
IRI ONI FORECAST
CPC ONI CHART
Based on the average of the 3 analogs (17.3 storms total, 7.6 hurricanes and 4.0 major hurricanes), and analysis of current forecast conditions above, my pre-season forecast totals were derived in this manner. Again, these will most likely change and conditions change, and values are recalculated as we get closer the the start of the season.
You may direct any questions this season by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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