May 12, 2021

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2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION…ISSUED APR. 28, 2021…7:15 P.M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather.  In all, I put out $68 a month to provide you, what I hope are accurate forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts
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Good evening to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I am taking a break this evening from severe weather, as the SPC outlook for tomorrow, currently indicates very low probabilities of tornado and hail activity.  This post will be more of a hurricane supplemental information post.  Since I haven’t had the time to post this, it will contain storm names and supplemental names for the 2021 hurricane season, as well as some new products which will be issued from the NHC during their advisories.

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Ana  Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
You’ll note the first named is marked in bold red as an example.  As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red.  This will indicate the storms either active, or having been already dissipated.  This should make it easier to keep track of the total number during the season.
Beginning this season, the WMO has decided to no longer use the Greek alphabet, and came up with an alternate list of names, should we go past the names above.  The list of names are as follows:

Should we make it that far, the same posting technique will apply as above.

The following is a link to a PDF showing the pronunciation of the 2021 season storm names:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf

The NHC is adding some new products to the advisories, along with graphics currently used in the advisories:
GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION VALUES

NHC will continue to provide an experimental graphic in 2021 that will depict the expected storm surge inundation values for the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands that are provided in the tropical cyclone public advisory (TCP). These values represent the peak height the water could reach above normally dry ground somewhere within the specified areas. This graphic will be made available on the NHC webpage.

New experimental weather forecast elements added for “Blue Water” Mariners:

To improve services for the “Blue Water” mariner well away from land, the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of NHC is introducing new experimental weather forecast elements via our Marine Graphical Composite Forecast map. While this is internet-based and not necessarily available to everyone offshore, it is designed to help any mariners in port who may have limited access to the internet, such as relatively low-bandwidth WiFi provided in many remote marinas and ports. The new weather elements have been added to the existing set to help keep mariners informed and safe. The new experimental weather forecast elements include the following:



These new experimental weather elements are available via the existing TAFB’s Marine Graphical Composite Forecast maps:

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Tropical North Atlantic
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecast/enhanced_atlcfull.php

Tropical Eastern North Pacific:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecast/enhanced_epacfull.php

The following is the 2021 hurricane season forecast error cone radii results.  The size of the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins will be very similar compared to 2020, with any changes less than 5 nautical miles at all time periods. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of imaginary circles placed along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over the previous five years (2016-2020) fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2021 for the Atlantic, and eastern and central North Pacific basins are given in the table below:

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-04-28 23:13:30

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