MJO, NAO/AO, PNA
A look at several teleconnection indices tends to support the idea of a colder overall pattern later next week in the eastern and southern US. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) appears to headed into “phases” that are typically more favorable for colder weather in the eastern and southern US. In addition, the Pacific North America (PNA) index is in “positive” territory and should remain there and this is usually associated with high pressure ridging across western parts of the US and Canada. Finally, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) which gives us a clue as to the temperature and pressure patterns across the Arctic and North Atlantic are both forecasted to decline later this month from “positive” levels to at least the “neutral zone” and perhaps eventually to “negative” values which is usually associated with high-latitude blocking aloft such as what appears to be setting up for later next week across Canada.
Stay tuned…we’ll continue to monitor the prospects for an important pattern change in coming days that could result in more winter-like weather across the eastern and southern states.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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