By the second half of the weekend, this Gulf storm will begin a push to the north and east and likely result in a heavy rainfall and strong winds for Florida and perhaps southern Georgia as well. In the upper atmosphere, the low over the eastern Gulf will continue to deepen as it turns to the north and east and a northern stream system will begin to play an increasing role in the overall pattern. The northern system may very well begin to phase with the southern disturbance creating significant intensification of surface low pressure over the southeastern states by Sunday night or early Monday. Rain and wind could spread northward into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in this time period and additional weather threats could include beach erosion and flooding along coastal sections.
If indeed these two features phase together in the Sunday night/Monday time period then the pressure gradient field could tighten dramatically associated with a powerhouse surface low pressure system potentially resulting in damaging winds across the eastern states. With the lack of cold air at the onset, the likely dominate precipitation type in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US early next week would be rain. However, there is always the chance that an intense storm system sitting over or just off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline could draw in enough cold air from Canada to cause a changeover to snow; especially, across inland, higher elevation locations.
Stay tuned…many days to go on this next storm threat.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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