After Hurricane Eta impacts Nicaragua and Honduras, it is likely to turn back to the north and skirt Belize on its way back to the open warm waters of the western Caribbean by the end of the week. It is at this point that the remnants of Eta may become an increasing concern for residents in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast US. The overall weather pattern that is unfolding is conducive to a re-strengthening of whatever remains of Eta when it returns to a position over the open waters of the western Caribbean. Specifically, strong high pressure ridging will form over the southeastern part of Canada/Northeast US in coming days and this will allow for formation and/or intensification of tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico/SW Atlantic. The upper-level wind flow that is to form in coming days will likely allow for this tropical system to push north early next week – perhaps right into the southern Gulf of Mexico. All eyes along the US Gulf coast and southeast US coastline will need to monitor closely this tropical threat for a possible impact sometime next week. Despite the switch on the calendar to November, the very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season is not quite ready to pack it in for the year.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian