12:10 PM | *”Hit or Miss” showers and thunderstorms in recent weeks frustrating those north of the PA/MD border…lawns turning brown in some areas…additional rain chances coming…but no guarantees* — Arcfield Weather

Over the next few days there will be additional chances of rain in the Mid-Atlantic region, but there are signs the overall pattern of recent weeks may continue namely with better chances of significant amounts to the south of the PA/MD border. In fact, the 00Z Euro model forecast map of rainfall amounts over the next 10 days features a noticeable “precipitation hole” across southeastern and east-central Pennsylvania. There is actually some support for this particular model forecast by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) who depict noticeably higher rainfall amounts over the next 7 days to the south of the PA/MD border.

The first chance of rain in the Mid-Atlantic region comes later today and tonight as the frontal system that inched its way through last night returns to the north as a warm front.  As has been the case recently, the best chance of the showers and thunderstorms from this active frontal boundary zone will be across Maryland, Virginia, and DC with lesser chances in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  A couple of upper-level disturbances will renew the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region and then a frontal system arrives Friday with yet another opportunity for some rainfall. While these opportunities do present some hope to the moisture-starved residents of the northern Mid-Atlantic, there is no guarantee that any of these upcoming showers and thunderstorms will be much more than the “hit or miss” variety. However, to end on a more positive note, any shower or thunderstorm that does form over the next few days can certainly produce some significant rainfall amounts in a short period of time for a given location.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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