On Friday, a jet streak associated with an upper-level trough will approach the Mid-Atlantic region from the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, at the surface level, low pressure will intensify rapidly as it passes just to the east of the New England coastline on Friday at the same time high pressure builds to our north and west. The pressure gradient will tighten dramatically later tomorrow between the departing strong and intensifying low pressure system and the approaching strong high pressure system and this will result in strengthening winds at ground level. Winds are likely to start the day on Friday in the 15-20 mph range from a westerly direction with gusts to 30+ mph, but they will likely increase substantially as the day progresses with height falls aloft and cold advection that will support mixing. The overall atmosphere will become quite unstable as the day progresses on Friday with very steep lapse rates – all of which will contribute to wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range later tomorrow and tomorrow night. The likely 12-hour time period for the worst of the wind gusts is from around 2 or 3 PM on Friday to about 2 or 3 AM on Saturday. Downed tree limbs is on the table with the potential of 50-60 mph wind gusts; especially, considering the fact that leaves are now pretty fully grown. Unfortunately, power outages are also on the table for this potential high wind event from later tomorrow into early Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region.
As the pressure gradient relaxes on Saturday, winds should die down noticeably as well as the day progresses and temperatures will likely rebound from the 40’s early in the day to the 60’s later in the day. An even warmer day is in store for Sunday with temperatures likely to flirt with the 80 degree mark for afternoon highs in at least parts of the I-95 corridor.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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