February 22, 2024

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11:30 AM | ****Accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and we’ll have to watch for small-scale “banding”…an Arctic blast to follow for the weekend…a warming trend next week**** — Arcfield Weather

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Details

A two-year “snow drought” in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ended earlier this week with the accumulation of more than an inch of snow at the official weather stations in each of the three big cities. As it turns out, there will be two accumulating snow events this week in this same I-95 corridor region as low pressure intensifies on Friday just off the Carolina coastline. This surface system will be aided by a vigorous upper-level low pressure system that will drop southeast from the Great Lakes on Friday and into the northeastern part of the country with a couple of “vorticity” centers (circled areas on map) rotating through the large-scale trough. Those areas just to the north of the initial “vorticity” maxima on Friday will likely experience the small-scale heavier snow bands enhancing accumulation amounts in the following areas: southeastern PA, northeastern MD, northern DE, southern and central NJ. The low pressure system will push in an east-to-northeast direction as it amplifies during the day on Friday and should be positioned well off the coast by Friday night (i.e., a fairly quick mover). However, there will be an “inverted” trough of low pressure later Friday that will likely extend back to the coast from the surface low pressure center well out over the western Atlantic. The speed at which the low intensifies while still near the east coast and the final positioning of the upper-level “vorticity” maxima and “inverted” trough will play big roles in total snow accumulation amounts for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and it can be quite variable.

Snow should begin very early on Friday in the I-95 corridor and continue through much of the day. Here is my current thinking on the timing of the arrival of the snow and preliminary accumulation estimates in the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions:

Philly metro region:

Arrival time: 4-8 AM

            Snowfall:       3-6 inches

DC metro region:

            Arrival time: 3-7 AM

            Snowfall:       1-3 inches

NYC metro region:

            Arrival time: 5-9 AM

            Snowfall:       2-4 inches

Paul Dorian

2024-01-17 16:12:34

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