10:45 AM | **Tropical Storm Fiona to impact Caribbean islands this weekend…potential scenarios thereafter are discussed** — Arcfield Weather

Discussion

As of 8AM, Tropical Storm Fiona has sustained winds of 50 mph and is moving westward at 13 mph under the influence of a sub-tropical ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. The general westerly track should continue for the next few days which will bring Fiona across the northern Leeward Islands by tomorrow night and to near or over Puerto Rico later this weekend. By the end of the weekend or early part of next week, Fiona will likely be near or over the island of Hispaniola (Dominican Republic (east), Haiti (west)) and after this considerable differences exist in some of the computer model forecast track scenarios.

In terms of intensification, there is currently an asymmetric structure of Tropical storm Fiona with the low-level circulation center decoupled from the main area of convection due to wind shear.  In addition, mid-level dry air is in the vicinity of Fiona and this combination will limit its strengthening prospects in the near term as it heads towards the Caribbean. In addition, interaction with land masses in the Caribbean later this weekend could also put a damper on intensification prospects; especially, if there is movement directly over Hispaniola which has some high terrain that often disrupts the circulation pattern of a tropical cyclone.  Despite the somewhat limited prospects of intensification for Tropical Storm Fiona, heavy rains are likely to spread into Puerto Rico and then Hispaniola later in the weekend with flash flooding/mudslides certainly on the table.