November 30, 2022

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Weather News & Forecast

10:15 AM | *Tropics have come alive…multiple systems to monitor in coming days* — Arcfield Weather

2 min read

Discussion

So far this tropical season overall activity has been running at well below-normal levels in the Atlantic Basin and across the northern hemisphere as a whole. One of the reasons as to why there has been a quiet start to the tropical season include several incursions of dry air masses to the Atlantic Ocean from the Sahara Desert region of Africa.  Another has to do with increased wind shear levels in recent weeks over the tropical Atlantic Ocean which acts to suppress development and/or intensification of tropical systems.

One of the best ways to measure overall tropical activity is through a metric known as the “Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)” which factors in both magnitude and duration of systems.  As of the 29th August, ACE was far below average in the Atlantic Basin and about half of average across the entire northern hemisphere. Indeed, if there is no named tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin by the end of August which is only a couple days away then that would be the first time since August of 1997 and only the third time since 1961. There have been only three named storms so far in 2022 – Alex, Bonnie and Colin – and this follows the very active years of 2021 and 2020 which featured 21 and 30 named storms respectively.

Currently, there about 4 tropical systems of note across the Atlantic Basin.  One system resides over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and it certainly has a chance to ultimately impact Mexico or Texas should it hold together in coming days.  Another system is out in the northern part of the central Atlantic and it has little chance of strengthening in coming days.  Far to the east, a strong wave has just passed off the west coast of Africa and out into the open waters of the eastern Atlantic and it’ll have plenty of time to intensify as it travels over the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic.

Paul Dorian

2022-08-29 14:09:51

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