Will long dry stretch continue?

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DETROIT – We told you long before it happened, and now it has happened, we desperately need some rain around here. Although Wednesday and today were wonderful recreational summer days, the very low humidity really enhanced the dryness we are seeing around town. Unwatered lawns aren’t just turning brown, they’re turning crunchy.

To give you an idea of how dry it’s been, Metro Airport has officially received only 0.10 inches of rain since June 25 — that’s two-and-a-half weeks ago.

Average rainfall during this same period is 1.79 inches. And that lack of water is taking a toll — take a look at the newest Drought Monitor map, which was just posted today:

Abnormally dry conditions are expanding across the lower peninsula, and parts of the Thumb have just been elevated from abnormally dry to moderate drought.

We really need rain, and we shouldn’t see any tonight, as a big mass of rain over northern Michigan stays north of our area. A couple of high resolution computer models try to bring an isolated light shower into our northern suburbs, but we’ll believe it when we see it.

Lows won’t be as comfortable as the past two nights — generally falling into the mid 60s (18 degrees Celsius), and a little cooler than that in rural area. Calm air once again means no breeze coming in the windows tonight.

Even if Friday begins partly cloudy, skies will become mostly sunny and you’ll notice the increasing heat and humidity. Highs should be near 90 degrees (32 degrees Celsius). South wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Partly cloudy Friday night, with uncomfortable lows in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius).

Weekend

If you’ve been following our article this week, you know that the weekend forecast has been exceptionally tricky. And today’s computer models have done nothing to increase our confidence. It probably won’t be until Friday that our high-resolution models give us a better handle on things. The culprit is a very weak cold front sliding down across the area.

Not only are the models handling the timing differently, but the fact that the front is so weak means that the winds ahead of and behind the front are light — this reduced convergence of wind just ahead of the front means that it won’t be as potent a trigger for thunderstorms — atmospheric instability will play a more critical role.

Today’s models seem to suggest that this weak boundary will be drifting somewhere across the area on Saturday, so we have to introduce the chance for at least a scattered thunderstorm. The best chance will be in the afternoon when it is warmest and most unstable.

So if you have plans that call for outdoor activities, and we know there are a lot of festivals, weddings and graduation parties going on, you will be well served by checking the awesome radar page on our FREE Local4Casters app. Just search under WDIV in the app store, and you’ll see it right there.

When you open the app, it opens right to the radar page, which you can zoom and pan with your fingers to customize which area you want to look at. It’s so simple, just check often to monitor any potential development so you can stay a step ahead of the weather.

You can also follow us on Twitter (@PGLocal4 and @Local4Casters) for personalized updates. Not everybody will get a thunderstorm, but we’ll all be hot and humid with highs near 90 degrees (32 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy Saturday night, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Lows in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius).

Sunday is also still tricky, although some models suggest that the best chance for a scattered storm is in the morning. Again, just keep an eye on our app’s radar if you have outdoor plans. It’ll be another hot and humid day, with highs near 90 degrees (32 degrees Celsius).

Finally tracking some rain

While not everybody will get rain over the weekend, an approaching stronger cold front will bring a better chance for thunderstorms later Monday into Monday night.

The day could conceivably start with some sunshine and, if we keep this sunshine through the morning, we’ll have no problem getting back up to near 90 degrees (32 degrees Celsius), and it’ll be another steamy day.

Cooldown

After Monday’s cold front clears the area Monday night, we’ll finally enter into a cooler, drier air mass that’ll stick around for a while.

Expect partly cloudy skies on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 80s (30 degrees Celsius), followed by a mostly sunny day on Wednesday with highs in the low 80s (28 degrees Celsius). Our next chance for any much-needed rain is Thursday, followed by what appears to be spectacular summer weather for next weekend.

Copyright 2018 by WDIV ClickOnDetroit – All rights reserved.

2018-07-12 19:53:30

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