SHORT TERM FORECAST
TODAY: Hot and humid with clouds breaking for some sunshine; a shower or t-storm around. High: 90
TONIGHT: Humid with an evening shower or t-storm; otherwise, becoming partly cloudy. Low: 70
MONDAY: Moderately humid with sun and clouds and an afternoon shower or t-storm. High: 86 Low: 69
While the first weekend of August may have started off dry Saturday, it ends on a stormy note Sunday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one early and another late, will bring a few different severe weather threats to the weather table. Torrential rain, which may lead to localized flooding, will be the most common threat. That said, any storm refiring during the afternoon could bring down damaging wind gusts, hail and even a brief spin up. The cherry on top of our stormy Sunday…high heat and humidity with temperatures reaching 90 degrees and feeling even hotter. On the heels of our Sunday system is the arrival of tropical moisture tied to Isaias. Isaias’s current track hugs the Eastern Seaboard, putting our area in the cone of uncertainty come Tuesday. While it’s track is certainly not set in stone, and while the storm will weaken as it moves northward near land, the northern mid-Atlantic will have to prepare for periods of heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday night before an area of high pressure helps things dry out thereafter.
An area of low pressure will continue its journey northeastward across the St. Lawrence River Valley Sunday, pushing a warm front through Pennsylvania and New Jersey as it does so. After a round of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, our region will end up in a warm sector during the afternoon. Essentially, we’ll be tucked between a warm front to the north and an incoming cold front to the west. This all spells a hot and humid Sunday with highs near 90 degrees and dew points back in the steamy 70s. And while theere will be a bit of a lull in thunderstorms from about midday into early afternoon as clouds break for some sunshine, more thunderstorms may refire from mid to late afternoon through Sunday evening. The heat and humidity will build up instability in the atmosphere ahead of that approaching cold front, keeping the threat for strong winds, heavy downpours, and even some hail alive and well. There’s also a low tornado chance, if storms are able to isolate and thrive off of that instability.
A shower or gusty thunderstorm chance will remain Sunday night, mainly before midnight, as our aforementioned cold front crosses the region. Look for quieter and drier times after midnight as our cold front slowly moves off to our east and skies turn out partly cloudy. Some areas of fog will be possible after midnight as well, certainly in any location that received rainfall. It will be another sticky night with lows only around 70 degrees.
While a good chunk of Monday appears to be dry under partly sunny skies, another cold front will be approaching from our west late in the day. With dew points staying rather high well into the 60s, there will be enough fuel available for the approach of the front to perhaps touch off a few showers or a thunderstorm later in the afternoon into the evening. High temperatures should fall back closer to seasonable levels mostly in the mid 80s.
Monday’s cold front approaching from the west will stall near the region for Tuesday while Isaias heads up the Mid-Atlantic coast. The influx of tropical moisture from Isaias interacting with the stalled front to our west will bring the possibility of tropical downpours. At least a couple inches of rain seem in the cards right now for a good chunk of the region based on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track. At least some minor flooding is certainly a possibility, although the relatively quick movement of Isaias should limit the coverage and concerns overall. Of course, any changes in Isaias’s track could greatly impact how much rain we see, so stay tuned for further updates. With plenty of clouds and damp weather expected Tuesday, look for highs to get no warmer than the upper 70s. It will still be very sticky however.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
Isaias will be departing to our north across New England for Wednesday meaning the region will return to drier and sunnier times, although not entirely rain-free. The pesky cold front that was to our west on Tuesday and interacting with Isaias will still be close enough to our east on Wednesday to keep a spotty shower or thunderstorm in the forecast. Bottom line though is that a good portion of Wednesday should be dry with partial sunshine and highs staying around seasonable levels in the mid 80s. Humidity will remain high however. High pressure looks to return for Thursday leading to dry weather with a drop in humidity values and a fair amount of sunshine. Highs also should stay close to seasonable levels in the low to mid 80s.
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