The weather extremes of St. Patrick’s Day; warmer temps this week, with 50s in sight | Updraft

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Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

We all know that March can be a fickle month, so it’s not too surprising that there’s been a wide range of St. Patrick’s Day weather over the years.

Our warmest St. Patrick’s Day in the Twin Cities was in 2012, when we hit 80 degrees. Our coldest official Twin Cities low temp on St. Patrick’s Day was 8 below zero, in 1941. The high temp that day was only 8 above zero.  Our snowiest St. Patrick’s Day was in 1965, with 11.2 inches of new snow in the Twin Cities!

The March 17, 2012 high temp was a new record for the earliest 80 degree reading of any calendar year in the Twin Cities. The timing was good too, since it occurred on a Saturday.

The ice went out on several Twin Cities metro area lakes that weekend. Here’s a peek at Lake Harriet in Minneapolis on March 18, 2012:

Lake Harriet Yacht Club webcam, March 18, 2012

St. Patrick’s Day of 2012 was the second day in a four-day stretch of record highs in the Twin Cities:

NWS data for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

St. Patrick’s Day temps will be much closer to normal this year.

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see highs in the 30s this Sunday afternoon.

Many spots will also have highs in the 30s on Monday:

Some spots in the metro could touch 40 Monday afternoon.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 40s Tuesday, followed by mid 40s Wednesday and around 50 on Thursday. We could reach the low-to-mid 50s on Friday. It looks like we could reach the upper 50s next Saturday, assuming that most of our Twin Cities snow cover is gone by then.

Snow chances

Scattered light snow showers are possible Sunday morning in Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin will continue with a chance of scattered light snow showers Sunday afternoon, and those areas could also see a few sprinkles.

Much of the coming week will be dry, but scattered snow showers could return to northern Minnesota late Monday into early Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, via tropicaltidbits

At this point, it looks like the Twin Cities metro area could see a light rain shower or light snow shower Tuesday night.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Flooding update

A flood warning continues until late Monday night for areas near Sand Creek in Jordan, in the southwest Twin Cities metro area:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1117 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019

…Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Record Severity for the
following rivers in Minnesota…

Sand Creek at Sand Crk Jordan affecting Scott County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC139-181016-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190319T0820Z/
/SNCM5.3.IC.190314T2338Z.190315T0615Z.190317T2020Z.NR/
1117 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019

…Observed flooding increased from Minor to Record severity…
…Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Record severity…
The Flood Warning continues for
The Sand Creek at Sand Crk Jordan.
* until late Monday night.
* At 10:00 PM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast…The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
tomorrow afternoon.

You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any location on the NWS Twin Cities site. Areas with flood warnings are shaded green on their main page, and here’s how the map looked Sunday morning:

NWS Twin Cities

You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

2019-03-17 14:04:00

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