Scattered showers today stay well south, affecting only the southern most third to quarter of Ohio. In those areas we can see a few hundredths to half an inch, but central and northern Ohio will take a bit of a break from precipitation through the daylight hours. Colder air is advancing in over the northern part of the state today, and likely tightens its grip on the region tomorrow. We do see moisture coming back into the state tomorrow, with moisture approaching from the south and west. That moisture comes as rain in many areas, but we are concerned about snow with some accumulations in west central and north central locations, and to a lesser extent in NW Ohio. Accumulations tomorrow afternoon and evening will be mostly a couple of inches or less, if any at all. Snow that falls will be a very wet snow, so big snow potential is not likely in most areas. There is potential for a few outliers. The map at right is one idea of snow potential. The coverage is likely a good representation, but do not look as closely at the exact totals…because those can and will be skewed by temperatures on Saturday as the event unfolds, and we could significantly less. .
Dry to finish the weekend Sunday, and we stay precipitation free Monday. We will be somewhat mild for the period. On Tuesday clouds increase, and then we see precipitation from early to mid afternoon on through the overnight and through Wednesday early afternoon. This action starts as rain, but switches over to snow. Liquid equivalent totals will be from .25″-1″ with coverage at 90% of Ohio. Snow accumulations are likely from I-70 north, especially in the NW quadrant of the state. We start to clear out a bit late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Dry for thanksgiving next Thursday, and then we see temps moderate slightly later in the day. Black Friday will feature clouds, and we cant rule out a few scattered rain or snow showers, but moisture potential is only a few hundredths to a tenth or two and 60% coverage. So, minor action over all. We are drier for the end of the 10 day window, but there is some model disagreement over Sunday the 1st. WE are staying conservative at this time with a mix of clouds and sun, but no precipitation. We will keep watch on it.
The extended period still looks colder. Temps will be moving to below normal levels from 12/2 to 12/6. We cant rule out scattered snow showers Tuesday the 2nd in the afternoon, but nothing exceptionally well organized. Same story toward the end of the extended period too on the 7th. But, the main takeaway for our 11-16 day forecast window is the return of cold air, potentially dominating into mid-December.
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