Invest 95L May Become a Tropical Depression Today, But Here’s Why It’s Not a Serious Threat For the Lesser Antilles

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Watching Invest in Atlantic
  • The National Hurricane Center is watching two areas in the Atlantic for tropical development.
  • Invest 95L in the central Atlantic is likely to become a short-lived tropical cyclone.
  • Invest 95L will encounter wind shear by this weekend, causing it to become less organized.
  • A second system system near Bermuda will curve away from the U.S. and out to sea.

A tropical disturbance between west Africa and the Lesser Antilles may become a tropical depression today, one of two systems behind monitored, neither of them likely to pose a significant threat to land in the days ahead.




An area of low pressure is currently just over 1,300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, moving west-northwest.


Current Satellite, Winds

(Invest 95L is at the lower right corner of the image above. The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Teal-colored arrows show surface winds.)


The NHC has dubbed this system Invest 95L in order to collect specialized data sets and computer model guidance on the area of interest.


Satellite imagery indicates convection has flared with this low-pressure area. If it persists with a closed circulation of low pressure, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) may initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two at any time. 


Fortunately, even if it’s deemed a tropical depression, it doesn’t have much of a future.


Upper-level winds will become hostile by the time the system nears the Lesser Antilles this weekend. These shearing winds should rip the system apart. 


Current Satellite and Wind Shear

(Clouds are shown in white and the disturbance is shown by the “I” icon. Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to tropical cyclones and those trying to develop.)


That said, the area of disturbed weather could enhance moisture in the Lesser Antilles Sunday into Monday, leading to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity.


A Second Tropical System Near Bermuda


Another system currently centered southwest of Bermuda has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression by the end of this week, according to the NHC.


Regardless if it develops, this area of low pressure will track west-northwest, north and then northeast away from the U.S. coastline into the weekend. A cold front moving off the East Coast by Friday night will be responsible for deflecting this system out to sea.


(MORE: Less Active Hurricane Season Ahead?)


Therefore, even if a tropical depression did develop there would be no direct threat to the U.S. since it would remain several hundred miles offshore. That said, it could increase the chance of rip currents in eastern North Carolina Friday-Saturday, the National Weather Service says.


You can see the two areas of disturbed weather that is currently watching in the tropical outlook graphic below.


Tropical Development Chances

(The potential area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by circles, color-coded by the chance of development over the next five days. An “X” indicates the location of a current disturbance.)


We will continue to monitor these two areas of interest in the Atlantic over the next few days, but for now, there is no major threat to be concerned about.

2018-07-05 10:18:45

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